Hi, this is Ayan Jana with Wicked Stocks, bringing you your daily Tesla report for Monday, September 15th, 2025.
Big Picture & Recent Price Action
Let’s take a look at the charts. Start with the big picture. We did finally close above the 360.76 channel top. That actually was a Thursday development. Friday was the blast. Um, and in fact, I can show that on the daily chart. Uh, pretty much right here.
Uh, you can see on Thursday we closed above the 360.76 formation, and then we just continued north in a big bad way on Friday, pushing through this channel top at 377.62, spending a lot of the day actually at 394.14, or this channel structure that goes back to the June low.
Key Pivot: The 394.14 Level
This settlement above 394.14 does uh suggest higher trade this week uh but it’s so close I think you would agree that we could quite easily open at or below 394144 which would then allow 37762 intraday
So this 39414 is a pivot point, not only for the day but into the later week. I’d like to see you know with this kind of volatility to say that I want to wait for yet another day, settlement about 394.14 could be too long to wait.
Bullish Scenario & Near-Term Targets
I will say that if we open today above 39414, 41441 is in reach. That is an extreme channel top. I have that as an intraday resistance area. The day trade, I think, rests at 39414.
If we open above it, it is a level to buy and 41441 could be, you know, a profit-taking area at least a portion. I do think over the next, you know, and normally this would be a 2 to 3 week target at 42611.
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Accelerated Timeframes & The 426.11 Target
But the way things are playing out the last couple of days, this could be a 2 to three day objective. If we close today above 41441, we quite easily test 42611 uh tomorrow, Tuesday. 42611 is a wave count. And there’s another one right on top of it that we’re not showing in the same exact vicinity, but it is nothing more than this.
I think this was a May high of 36771 against, which was probably the May low as well, two weeks later, 27321. You subtract them from each other, and you add it back to 36771 as a kind of a full wave, and you’ve got 42611. This is also an ABC pattern here in the 426 area as well. In other words, you take this May high, you subtract from it the April low, and then you add to it that May low, and you get 426 and change. So 42611 is a big area, and I hate to, I don’t want to oversell it, but it can contain at least daily buying pressures.
Long-Term Objective & Volatility Notes
Now overall, last week’s settlement above the 4, 360.76 area does maintain 52303 as a 5 to 8-month objective, and I think that’s realistic. I don’t expect this volatility to sustain, but it just might. I mean, we’ve got this sort of uh push now we’ve got this renewed heightened volatility um that is not all too dissimilar from uh what we saw in like November into December of last year. Um, I don’t see that happening again, but you never know. So, five to eight months or sooner. Could it be within three to five months? Certainly.
Intermediate Target & Potential Pullback
In fact, on the way up, I do think this 453.56 rising channel top will have something to say about that. And on the daily chart, uh, you can see that 453.46 is actually at 445.91. And this is the potential sequence of events. Opening Monday above 394.14 contains weekly selling pressures 41441 in reach uh today Monday we could top out here on an intraday possibly through the rest of the day basis pushing through or or closing above 41441 42611 then likely maybe on an intraday basis
But the following day, Tuesday, had settled above 41441 on Monday. If we close above 42611, then we’re just a few days away with present volatility from reaching 445.91. And this is a significant six-month channel top that may well contain buying through October. From 44591, we can fall back, for instance, to the four 393 394.14 formation within 2 to 33 3 to 5 weeks, possibly all the way back into the 360s. We do have 445.91 as a channel support presently at 300.59.
Bearish Scenario: Opening Below 394.14
So now I’m kind of jumping around here. I understand that. But let’s go through the sequence here, what if we open today below 39414? As I’ve already said, we can ease back to 377.62, which is this inside channel that I don’t see as a significant support level.
Could contain selling for the balance of the day. But if we close today below 39414, I do think the emphasis is that while the market doesn’t show a sell signal, this is a ceiling of resistance into the later week that could allow the market to fall back to 360.76 within about 3 to 5 days. So keep that in mind. 360.76 is a range. Well, it’s not a range anymore. I’m just hanging everything on this channel structure. Uh, that two-and-a-half, almost three-year channel structure.
Containment & Long-Term Bullish Outlook
I think this can contain selling through October, even through the rest of the year, perhaps and above which 52303 remains a 3 to five month target. So what am I saying once again? Let me get back to this image. If we open today, certainly close today below 39414, you must allow, or at least allow in your calculations, the possibility of 360.76, quite possibly by the end of the week, with this kind of volatility, where we could bottom out through the rest of the year and round up again.
Day Trade Support & Summary of Scenarios
On the way down, 377.62 does offer solid intraday activity, solid uh support for day traders only. Uh, closing above 39414. The rally continues, and I could see 42611 possibly this week. 44591 uh over the next few weeks. Uh, do I have the same? Yes, I have it right here. So closing above 39414, closing higher on the day. Like I said, we closed just above this structure.
It wouldn’t take a stretch of the imagination to see how we could open right back below it on Monday. But if we could easily gap higher today. We could gap above the 39668 high from last Friday, in which case 41441, I think, is likely today. So the point I’m making in terms of the broader 2 to 3 week outlook closing higher on the day, uh, continued settlements above 39414 maintain 445.91 with present volatility as a 2 to 3 week objective where we could top out through October into November and fall away.
The Next Major Bullish Trigger
It would be sooner rather than later if a settlement above 453.56 were to occur. The same structure on the weekly chart that we found on the daily at 44591 that would set up our 52303 5 to 8-month objective within as little as 1 or 2 months. So we could see this sooner, and I think the pivot point for sooner rather than later is the 453.56 rising channel top.
Final Thoughts & Risk Management
Is there anything else for me to add? Uh, no. Just once again closing below 39414. I’m not a big fan of being long through the rest of the week. I think you could actually I think if you’re long based on Thursday’s buy signal and you may have gotten long, then this is an area that if we close back below, I think you should trim some of the long uh position that you have in anticipation of possible falling back to 360.76 by Friday’s close is certainly possible where we could bottom out through the rest of the year.
Big Picture Downside Risk (Low Probability)
Last thing I’m going to say is, as another big picture element, if we do close below 360.76, that channel top on the weekly chart, um, 34518 is just a session containment level. I would see the possibility of the low 300s within 3 to 5 weeks of closing back below the 360.76 structure. But we’re not there. We’re nowhere near there.
Conclusion & Expected Opening
In fact, I think the odds favour a higher opening on the day. Clearly above 39414, and then it’s just sort of all systems go to the upside. 41441 is in reach today. 42611 is in reach this week. 445.91 over the next 2 to 3 weeks. I think I’ve said it all, and I am going to leave it at that for Monday’s Tesla report. Have a great day.
